Fighting the Destruction of Families!

1) Document Title: A Model of Static and Dynamic Sex Offender Risk Assessment

Author: Robert J. McGrath, Michael P. Lasher, Georgia F. Cumming

Document No.: 236217

Date Received: October 2011

Award Number: 2008-DD-BX-0013

This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice.

Link to Report:



Study of 759 adult male offenders under community supervision

Re-arrest rate: 4.6% after 3-year follow-up



2) Document Title: Recidivism Of Sex Offenders Released From Prison 1994

By: Patrick A. Langan, Ph.D., Erica L. Schmitt and Matthew R. Durose

Statisticians, Bureau of Justice Statistics

Document Number: November 2003, NCJ 198281


United States Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics

Findings:A Study of 9,691 sex offenders released from prisons in 15 states in 1994 and followed for 3 years.

Sex Crime Re-arrest Rate: 5.3%

Sex Crime Re-conviction Rate: 3.5%

Link To Report:





 BY: Washington State Institute For Public Policy

 A study of 4,091 sex offenders either released from prison or community supervision form 1994 to 1998 and examined for 5 years

 Findings:  Sex Crime Recidivism Rate: 2.7%

Link to Report:



4) Document Title: Indiana's Recidivism Rates Decline for Third Consecutive Year

BY: Indiana Department of Correction 2009

The recidivism rate for sex offenders returning on a new sex offense was 1.05%, one of the lowest in the nation. In a time when sex offenders continue to face additional post-release requirements that often result in their return to prison for violating technical rules such as registration and residency restrictions, the instances of sex offenders returning to prison due to the commitment of a new sex crime is extremely low.

Findings: sex offenders returning on a new sex offense was 1.05%

Link to Report:


 5) Nebraska Sex Offender Recidivism Study

Sex offense recidivism. In comparing the old risk-based system of classification to the new offense-based system of classification, the former risk-based system resulted in less overall recidivism. Specifically, the pre-LB 285 classification system resulted in a 2-year recidivism rate of 1.7% and a 1-year recidivism rate of 0.6%. In comparison, the post-LB 285 classification system resulted in a 2-year recidivism rate of 2.6% and a 1-year recidivism rate of 1.7%. We also examined the effectiveness of each classification system in identifying offenders at the highest risk to reoffend. In general, the former system that utilized a psychological risk assessment tool consistently distinguished offenders who were at a high, medium,and low risk to reoffend. In comparison, the AWA system was very effective in distinguishing those at a high risk to reoffend from medium and low risk offenders.

However, the AWA classification system consistently failed to distinguish offenders at medium risk to recidivate from those at low risk to recidivate. Our findings suggest that, as an overall tool for identifying a nuanced risk to reoffend, the old risk-based system appears more effective. However, if the goal is simply to distinguish the highest risk offenders from everyone else, the Adam Walsh Act Tier system appears most effective. One caveat, however, is that this latter finding is in sharp contrast to published research on sex offenders in other states (Zgoba et al. 2012).

Complete Study:


6)  Connecticut Recidivism Study 2012

"The recidivism rates for new sex crimes, shown here for the 746 sex offenders released in 2005, are much lower than what many in the public have been led to expect or believe. These low re-offense rates appear to contradict the conventional wisdom that sex offenders have very high recidivism rates. In reality, the picture is considerably more complex. While some sex offenders certainly pose an extremely high risk for committing new offenses, this does not appear to be the case for the majority of offenders. The real challenge for public agencies is to determine the level of risk specific offenders pose to the public."



7) Evidence Based V. Emotion Based Public Policy

February 2014 California:

A ground breaking analysis of the facts by CSOMB:

Fact-1: Residence restrictions would not of protected Jessica

Action: Use resources to enforce registration laws and prosecute the non-compliant. California registration law violations are largely felonies, and are mandated prison sentences, exempt from realignment local custody only sentences.

Action: Use resources for sex offender treatment, to influence what the offender does, not where he/she lives. Note: In the 2010 Legislative Session, ... ..Continued.. by California Sex Offender Management Board  



 Another list of recidivism studies can be found here.








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